Dodaj artykuł  


Inne artykuły

Zawsze kontrolowany 
4 lipiec 2010      Goska
Co by tu jeszcze spisić panowie 
9 grudzień 2016     
Borejsza naszych czasów 
7 kwiecień 2013      Artur Łoboda
Nieodrodni synowie bolszewizmu 
9 marzec 2015      Artur Łoboda
SZTUKA i MANIPULACJA rozmawiają Włodzimierz Iwanek art. malarz i Wiesław Sokołowski poeta 
10 czerwiec 2014
Bajka o Tusku, królu Europy  
30 maj 2015      Baj-Kał
Oni robią maszyny do zabijania - Polska je kupuje 
15 luty 2010      Ewa Jasiewicz
Krystyna Grzybowska o niemieckiej polityce historycznej 
14 grudzień 2013     
17 sierpień 2011      Bogusław
Znowu wybór mniejszego zła - pierwsze pytanie 
21 padziernik 2015      Artur Łoboda
Dla Lecha K. już tylko Gruzja, Ukraina i Izrael... 
1 wrzesień 2009      tłumacz
Wiktor Bater udzielił wywiadu Izwiestii. 
4 sierpień 2009      tłumacz
Fałszywa tolerancja ustępstwem wobec nazizmu 
29 styczeń 2013      Artur Łoboda
Udawana świętość 
30 lipiec 2016      Artur Łoboda
Ideologia PiS 
13 kwiecień 2017      Artur Łoboda
„Harakiri USA” czyli ustawowo ustalana granica zaciągania kredytów 
22 lipiec 2011      Iwo Cyprian Pogonowski
Doświadczalne króliki 
17 czerwiec 2011      Bogusław
Pytanie o przyszłosć ludzkosci 
25 padziernik 2011      Artur Łoboda
Marian Kowalski - przemówienie Anty KOD, 23.01.2016 r.  
24 styczeń 2016     
1944 – 2014 
4 sierpień 2014


Ahmadinejad bears a message for Israel

By Kaveh L Afrasiabi
Asia Times, Oct 14, 2010

Ahmadinejad called in his conversation with Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah for "closer coordination" between the countries to "create regional stability, especially in Lebanon", according to the Iranian press.

In light of King Abdullah's recent visit to Lebanon, reflecting a more proactive Saudi involvement in Lebanese affairs aimed atsustaining Lebanon's fragile internal peace, such diplomatic gestures by Ahmadinejad build confidence between Tehran and Riyadh as well as with other Arab capitals. This includes Cairo, which has taken a positive step in repairing ties with Iran by setting up an air link with Tehran.

Assuming Ahmadinejad's trip to Lebanon goes as planned and without any major hitches, it could go a long way in improving Iran's relations with the entire Arab world, which is somewhat weary of Tehran's politics of "sphere of influence" in Iraq and Lebanon, among other countries.

Iran's ambassador to Baghdad made it known in a recent meeting with Iraqi leaders that Tehran preferred the premiership of Nuri al-Maliki, a comment vilified in some Arab papers as tantamount to interference in Iraq's internal affairs. Maliki has been struggling since elections in March to form a government that would give him another term in power.

From Tehran's vantage point, the comment was a reminder of Iran's substantial influence in Iraq's dominant pro-Iran Shi'ite coalition - a fait accompli worthy of consideration by those pundits in the West who depict Iran as a "paper tiger". In contrast, some Arab pundits go to the other extreme and portray Iran as a "regional superpower".

The fact is, Iran is neither. It is a regional middle power benefiting from a geostrategic and geo-economic location straddling the two energy hubs of the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea, and it was deeply rattled by the post-September 11 infusion of Western power in its vicinity threatening its national securirty.

"The president's intention of the visit to Lebanon is several-fold," said a Tehran University political scientist who specializes in Iran's foreign relations. "First, he wants to make sure that there is no attempt to weaken Hezbollah because of the Hariri investigation." This is a reference to the United Nations-backed international tribunal investigating the assassination of former Lebanese president Rafik Hariri in Beirut in 2005; it is widely expected to implicate Lebanon's Hezbollah.

"Second, he [Ahmadinejad] wants to improve trade and economic ties between Iran and Lebanon. He will travel to south Lebanon to send a message to Israel that they can bet there will be a frontal attack on Israel from south Lebanon if Israel ever dares to attack Iran.

"Third, with Hezbollah's substantial arsenal of missiles, grown several-fold since the 2006 war [with Israel], that is a warning that no Israeli politician can afford to ignore. Fourth, the president is trying to improve relations with the Arab world and Lebanon is the gateway," said the political scientist, who added that the timing "is crucial because of both internal Lebanon politics and the waves of anti-Iran initiatives by the US and its allies. ... This visit is intended to elevate Iran's regional status."

Ahmadinejad is scheduled to meet President Michel Suleiman, Prime Minister Saad Hariri and parliament speaker Nabih Berri. He will also meet Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Given the huge publicity the two-day visit has generated, the stakes appear to be so high that Iran is worried that nervous Americans and Israelis may play mischief and resort to indirect acts of violence in Lebanon to deflect some of the attention from Ahmadinejad.

Israeli media are awash with government warnings to the Lebanese authorities not to allow Ahmadinejad to tour the border between the two countries. Some reports hinted that the president's intention to throw a stone in Israel's direction was designed to escalate tensions with Israel, a tit-for-tat for Israel's alleged complicity in a cyber-attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

According to another analyst at a Tehran think-tank, Iran has learned a precious lesson from Iraq, which was subjected to years of sanctions prior to the country's invasion in 2003. "Iran will not be another Iraq and Tehran can answer with hard power the sting of soft-power sanctions," the analyst told the author.

The United Nations, and the United States unilaterally, have imposed a raft of sanctions on Iran over its uranium-enrichment program. These are "retarding Iran's economic growth", to paraphrase some Iranian parliamentarians.

However, Tehran is not in a panic just yet, particularly since the recent US announcement of four major oil companies quitting Iran in response to the sanctions appears to have been made prematurely, according to reports from the Iranian Oil Ministry as well as news reports from outside the country. It was reported this month that France's Total, Royal Dutch Shell, Norway's Statoil and Italian Eni had agreed to abandon their business ties with Iran to avoid being hit with US sanctions.

A part of the reason Western oil majors are reluctant to end their involvement in Iran is that their lucrative contracts will most likely be taken over by Chinese companies, especially since the West has little control over China's economic relations with Iran.

Still, the Iranians continue to be worried about the adverse impact of sanctions in future foreign investment in the energy sector, which needs tens of billions of dollars to modernize its facilities. For example, a report states that while Iran's most recent five-year plan had slated some US$200 billion in investment in the oil and gas sector, only $70 billion had been earmarked to date. In other words, it is definitely in Iran's national economic interests to contain the nuclear crisis that is having an adverse economic impact on the overall economy.

Regarding the latter, European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton has expressed optimism on the renewal of nuclear talks "very soon"; this after coming under fire from Iran for "delaying" the dialogue.

Combining the familiar carrot and stick approach, the Europeans seem poised to restart the talks in an environment most conducive to their strategy, which is why coinciding with Ashton's statement British Foreign Secretary William Hague vowed "tougher sanctions". The aim is to garner major concessions from Tehran on the nuclear front.

In this environment, Tehran's response has been to play more overt "sphere-of-influence" politics in the region, one that conveys the impression that the lion (Iran's national symbol) is capable of roaring back if pressed too hard.

Kaveh L Afrasiabi, PhD, is the author of After Khomeini: New Directions in Iran's Foreign Policy (Westview Press) . He is author of Reading In Iran Foreign Policy After September 11 (BookSurge Publishing , October 23, 2008) and his latest book, Looking for rights at Harvard, is now available.
16 padziernik 2010

przysłał ICP 




Zabawne sa te obawy Izraela przed fizycznym zblizeniem sie Ahmadinejada do granicy Izraela. Moglby rzucic kamieniem.

Ciekawe ze biznes naftowy Zachodu wciaz jest obecny z inwestycjami w Iranie, pomimo amerykanskich sankcji. Zachodnioeuropejskie firmy nie sa sklonne porzucic intratne kontrakty w Iranie, gdyz wtedy ich miejsce zajma Chinczycy. Tylko gdzie w tym wszystkim jest miejsce dla Polski i jej interesow?




czerwiec 29, 2008
Marek Jastrząb
Odkryto zbiorową czeczeńską mogiłę
wrzesień 9, 2002
Byt Polski zagrożony zgodą na „Tarczę”?
lipiec 11, 2008
Iwo Cyprian Pogonowski
Jak przegrać „wojnę przeciwko terrorowi?”
kwiecień 2, 2006
Iwo Cyprian Pogonowski
Pokój Busha
styczeń 23, 2005
"Krwiożerczy Kapitalizm?"
padziernik 13, 2006
Iwo Cyprian Pogonowski
Al-Jazeera and the Truth by Charley Reese
listopad 28, 2006
przysłał Iwo Cyprian Pogonowski
Bliższe Polakom Niemcy niż USA?
grudzień 14, 2007
Gregory Akko
News lepszy od porannej kawy
listopad 30, 2007
Marek Olżyński
Maleńka cegiełka..
kwiecień 12, 2005
Asesor powinien pomagać sędziemu, a nie wydawać wyroki - niekonstytucyjność asesury - czas na nowy model sprawiedliwego sądo
listopad 6, 2006
Zdzisław Raczkowski
Pierwszy Polak zginął w Afganistanie
sierpień 15, 2007
Zygmunt Jan Prusiński
Dajcie szansę rozumowi
marzec 21, 2004
"Lubińska musi odejść"
listopad 23, 2005
Podstawowa rola Hitlera I Stalina w istnieniu Izraela
czerwiec 4, 2007
Iwo Cyprian Pogonowski
Tarcza i wyścig zbrojeń
sierpień 25, 2008
Iwo Cyprian Pogonowski
Hipokryzja obrońców życia i praw człowieka
styczeń 6, 2007
Mirosław Naleziński, Gdynia
Drugiej "nocnej zmiany" nie będzie!
lipiec 24, 2006
Wojciech Wybranowski
Demokracja made in Poland
sierpień 31, 2007
Colas Bregnon
moje przykazania - 2
maj 9, 2003
krzysztof gilewski


Fundacja Promocji Kultury
Copyright © 2002 - 2012 Polskie Niezależne Media